ECLECTICA FUND APRIL 2012 PDF

Hendry’s Eclectica Fund, which posted losses in and , last year made a wager on the currency rising that helped the fund gain Eclectica Fund, a global macro hedge fund established in October .. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Year. Eclectica Asset Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority / Private & Confidential. 2 Hugh Hendry, April

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As an example, ten years ago it was unthinkable that the dollar would prove so fragile.

Lee, reflected on this as he sat in the chilly offices of Norsk Hydro last week watching the snow fall outside. Today’s Outside the Box comes to us from England. Now, mostly this comes from Mexican and Korean producers, but clearly there is the implicit threat that their Chinese competitors might also be tempted. Or in other words, the best forgeries tend to pay homage to the tastes and prejudices of their time.

Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. In a debate I had with Mr. And in this environment risk aversion stimulates the investment desire for risk free assets.

He is an excellent filter for me, and this week’s Outside the Box offering is no exception. Statements made by various authors, advertisers, sponsors and other contributors do not necessarily reflect the opinions of InvestorsInsight, and should not be construed as an endorsement by InvestorsInsight, either expressed or implied.

Hendry was born in GlasgowScotland, in and graduated from Strathclyde University in with a BA in economics and finance. It is my contention that the leverage of the economy is only tenable if interest rates stay low and yet, whilst I believe some of them agree, they still fervently expect a rise. However, a nominal rate of 4.

If you believe, like I do, that it peaked in then the repercussions are enormous. This has been the Japanese experience to date. It was heralded by the Japanese experience.

John Mauldin’s Outside the Box.

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Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

Hendry has become known in the United Kingdom for his outspoken commentary on the financial crisis. It is a theme that I will constantly revisit in my arguments below. So it is not inconceivable, at least in my mind, that financial institutions, and notable amongst them the nation’s pension and endowment schemes, could be motivated by another basic human emotion, namely fear for their own survival, to snap up all these new government bonds.

The Norwegians suffer the most pain at present, but if the dollar were to strengthen Alcoa celectica conceivably go bust. Is it not time we drop our fascination with the present and consider the future? Controlling the psyche of this generation of investor is the indelible mark of the falling dollar and the associated fear of inflation.

Monetary inflation has been the distinguishing feature of the last spril years, and it is now firmly embedded in the contemporary mind. If a poet knows more about a horse than he does about heaven, he might better stick to the horse Indeed, this peculiarity is circular in nature.

Along similar lines, the German government does not anticipate its economy exceeding its previous GDP high until Views Read Edit View history.

Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

The Yellow Brick Road Consider another economy needing to be rebuilt: Hendry has been referred to as “the most high-profile Scot” in the hedge fund sector. Heady stuff, but not without precedent: The argument can be condensed into just two fears. It is almost like declaring an enthusiasm for Say’s Law.

They know full well that neither Europe nor Japan nor Britain nor Switzerland nor the rest of Asia are willing to sacrifice the implicit loss of manufacturing jobs. In Bernie We Trust?

Furthermore, the big Russian players like Rusal are under fynd pressure from Putin not to cut capacity check out ‘Putin bitch slaps Deripaska’ on http: In my marketing presentations I show a picture of Madoff superimposed on a dollar bill and ask, ” He railed against the persistent price deflation and argued that the economy was burdened by a vund of 212 see The Eclectica Fund Report, December However, all of this occurred before the discovery of cyanide for heap-leaching and the opening up of the huge South African gold fields.

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Lastly, there is the fact that Rio Tinto bought Alcan right at the very top of the cycle, though they dare not admit it is a terrible business. However, everything in our economic life exists at the margin, and the consequences of just maintaining the leverage constant would be a very low delta in nominal GDP growth. Furthermore, their households have lifted their government bond weightings five-fold over the last ten years. This was a period of stabilisation in tandem with the cash-for-clunkers program, which boosted the industry’s largest customer, the car sector.

First, fnud will suggest that 4. As you know, I am in the deflation camp for now, and we own a modest amount of government bonds and a series of asymmetric bets which would receive a boost from a return to some form of risk aversion.

Dund behave like Appril. The Fudn produced a small surplus back in the recession, so why not again?

Hugh Hendry

Women in Love, Investors in Love. However, output only troughed at its level; a twenty year retracement that is a far cry from our 70 year retracement. You could say that I am sticking to my horse. Rather, it may well be that find interest rates allow the mountain of debt to continue to be serviced.

vund Take another august body, the Harvard Endowment Fund. The QE succeeded because, amongst other features, it raised the velocity of monetary circulation. On an episode of the BBC ‘s Newsnight programme aired on 9 AprilHendry began his response to comments by the Nobel Prize—winning economist Joseph Stiglitz on the financial position of Greece by saying, “Erm, hello.

In order to finance the emergence of a new economic superpower, an abundance of dollars was needed.