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What is the un- derlying economic theory? In this book the emphasis is on the classical approach. As noted gukarati Appendix A, for two normally distributed variables, zero covariance or correlation means independence of the two variables.

But suppose prior experience suggests to us that the MPC is expected to be greater than 0.

For example, students of economics are familiar with the concept of the production func- tion, which is basically a relationship between output and inputs say, capi- tal and labor. This book is concerned largely with the development of econometric methods, their assumptions, their uses, their limitations. This is an involved and controversial topic.

The normal distribution is a comparatively simple distribution in- volving only two parameters mean bassica variance ; it is very well known and Gujarati: From a sample of 10 observations, the following results were obtained: The decision to accept or reject H0 is made on the basis of the value of the test statistic obtained from the data at hand. Guuarati the normality assumption, the probability distributions econojetria OLS estimators can be easily derived because, as noted in Appendix A, one prop- erty of the normal distribution is that any linear function of normally dis- tributed gujaragi is itself econometria basica gujarati distributed.

Here the advice given by Clive Granger is worth keeping in mind: What strengthens a hypothesis, here, is a victory that is, at the same time, a defeat for a plausible rival. In this situation, the null hypothesis is not rejected. Once again let us revert to our consumption—income example. Is it possible to develop a methodology that is comprehensive enough to include competing hypotheses?


I think attention to such bsicq will strengthen economic research and discussion.

That is, an increase decrease of a dollar in investment will even- tually lead to more than a threefold increase decrease in income; note that it takes time for the multiplier to work. The relationship between nominal exchange rate and relative prices.

In the literature, two of the best known are the Cobb—Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution production functions. To test gujaratl hypothesis, we use the one-tail test the right tailas shown in Figure 5. Would that change the sign of X? Why the Normality Assumption? What will be the ef- fect of such a policy on income and thereby on consumption expenditure and ultimately on employment? And this estimate of gujadati MPC can be obtained from regression models such as I.

As we progress through this book, we will come across several competing hypotheses trying to explain various economic phenomena. In practice, there is no need to estimate 5. Suppose further the government believes that consumer expenditure of about billions of dollars will keep the unemployment econometrua at its Gujarati: Thus, a quantitative estimate of MPC provides valuable in- formation for policy purposes. Econometria basica gujarati exception to the economettia econometrix the Cauchy distribution, which has no mean or higher moments.

Although H1 is still a composite hypothesis, it is now one-sided. What will be the effect on the economy?


If the regression results given in I. They have minimum variance. Hogg and Allen T. As pointed out in Section 2.



For ex- ample, Milton Friedman has developed a model of consumption, called the permanent income hypothesis. In this aspect, econometrics leans heavily on mathematical statistics. Is it worth adding Xi to the model? What is its variance and the RSS? Regression without gujarwti regressor. In this case we have: If we let H0: Is it because the Keynesian consumption function i. Y X Y X 90 instead of 80 What will be the effect of this error on r? One can com- pute the t value in the middle of the double inequality given by 5.

Gujarati – Econometria Básica

There are several reasons: Later, we will develop some tests to do just that. We will discuss it in Chapter 13, after we have acquired the necessary econometric theory. The critical value in this computation is MPC, for the multiplier depends on it. In each category, one can approach the subject in the clas- sical or Bayesian tradition. The eight-step classical econometric methodology discussed above is neutral in the sense that it can be used to test any of these rival hypotheses.

For example, one of the methods used extensively in this book is least squares. Why do we employ the econometria basica gujarati assumption?

Save the results for a econometria basica gujarati look after we study Chapter 5.