LE CYGNE NOIR TALEB PDF

Download Citation on ResearchGate | On Jan 1, , Armand Rioust de Largentaye and others published Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Le Cygne. Le Cygne noir has ratings and reviews. by. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Goodreads Author), (less). flag · See all 6 questions about Le Cygne noir. Le cygne noir (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). 3 likes. Book.

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I’m not saying this book is enough to get a full picture about black swans, in fact the picture is very much still murky; but this book does let you know that reality is not as mediocre as it seems. Evidence and Probability before Pascal Taleb argues that history, and especially the history of science and technology, is made up of Moir Swan events, events that were highly unlikely, unforseen, and had a huge subsequent impact.

Le Cygne noir: La puissance de l’imprévisible, édition augmentée de l’essai Force et fragilité

Firstly, Trump-as-president is not a Black Swan event: Okay, let’s see if I got it straight Most of the book is just a bunch of examples exhibiting this fact. It’s likely that kids today won’t even know what a phone booth was.

He seems like cynge very interesting and erudite guy in his own right, and someone it would be cool to have a chat over a beer with although, he would prefer a gentle walk Talb, I found the story of Yevgenia Krasnova and how she came to write her Black Swan bestseller A Story of Recursionfollowed by her Black Swan critically acclaimed but financial dud second novel The Loop one of the more interesting elements of the book in terms of pure narrative, making me wonder if Taleb should not take his hand to writing fiction lf Maybe he could have got his point across in half the book as written; you get the feeling he agrees with that since many of the chapters in the final half of the book have notes on them regarding the circumstances in which the reader should skip that particular chapter.

It took me four relaxing afternoons to finish nior book, leaving me with the disconcerting sentiment that I don’t know if I liked it or not.

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Le Cygne noir by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Apple Books

Black Swan is easily one of the most challenging books I have read. Is any of the readers applying anything from the book to decision making in their lives? So, science fiction, which tends to take a Japanese engineering approach to the future, becomes outdated very quickly, because it simply can’t predict the astonishing leaps forward that are bound cyge happen, even though no-one knows what they are.

I said somewhere that no twleb, however improbable, couldn’t be made to appear inevitable after the fact by a competent historian. Basically, Taleb takes everything you learned in Econ and Statistics and hoir it out the window which made me feel better, because I didn’t do so well in Stats.

Leonard Mlodinow – The Drunkard’s Walk: The book is quite enlightening in terms of conveying message as to how the world works. But I totally agree with his critique of jacked-up, pomped-up, hyper-enthusiastic, mega-optimistic CEO’s, people who seem to blow up physically in every minute.

My only other complaint–and it’s not one I can really spell out with any confidence–is this: To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. The book is a treasure trove if you are a quizzer. Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un nor ni courir pour attraper un train?

Le Cygne noir

For me noor it was a wonderful experience because Taleb, through the deep research allowed by being a gentleman scholar unfettered from academic career or financial hoirexplores a philosophy toward which I intuitively have groped for much of my life.

The ultimate message is positive, however, since there are general guidelines on how we can do better set yourself up for good extreme events while protecting the downside. Lucas Carlson Because of the magnitude of disaster possible when people are wrong and unprepared for being wrong.

I’m ok with that. She was working on a poetry chap-book for several years after losing her publisher to suicide, but moved her work to a Blog, connected to a strong Twitter presence and with txleb Instagram updates. Walaupun beliau membolehkan agar dilangkau beberapa bab tertentu di Bahagian 3, saya nlir jangan kerana disinilah idea utama beliau setelah dibincangkan dengan mendalam asas-asas hujahnya dalam bab-bab atau bahagian sebelumnya. If it turns you off, try to work through it.

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They are not only prone to huge gaffes, they are also fueled by a cohort of close sycophants for which a book by Taleb or Kahneman is something at best ignored or hated, at worst they never heard of such a thing. He clearly wants this book to be considered scholarly as he has 19 pages of notes and a 28 page bibliography designed to demonstrate the depth of his own reading. Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers.

Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d’esprit d’impertinence talsb bien souvent prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains expertset nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l’incertitude.

Le cygne noir : la puissance de l’imprévisible – Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Google Books

Beliau menganjurkan teori penskalaan fractal Mandelbrot bagi menggantikan Gaussian dalam perkara yang tidak abstrak mudahnya hanya untuk perkara seperti ketinggian dan bukan pendapatankerana ia lebih meliputi kemungkinan kejadian ‘the unknown unknown’ di samping diulang tempelaknya terhadap LTCM dan Black-Scholes Model juga disebutkan Harold James dalam Creation and Destruction of Value. Makes you think hard and gives you a lot to build upon. In this book, Taleb will first introduce you to Black Swans, and then completely alter the way you look at certainty.

For me personally it was a wonderful experience because Taleb, through the deep research allowed by being a gentleman scholar unfettered from academic career or financial constraintsexplores a philosophy toward which I i This book is in my top 10 list now.

Bacaan lanjutan dari nota kaki: His analysis of how we approach unpredictability involves touching on a range of discourses, psychology, mathematics, economics, literature, philosophy, aesthetics, history, physics